Play-Off Expansion Moves The Goal-Posts

Thirty seasons ago under Mark McGhee, Wolves finished third in the second tier with 76 points and failed to go up.

They lost out to Barnsley in a niggly head-to-head race for the second automatic promotion place and were subsequently defeated by Crystal Palace in the play-off semi-finals.

Jamie Smith scored a memorable solo goal in a first leg dominated by the scoring heroics of Dougie Freedman, then a stirring Molineux night at the return witnessed another of those nearly-but-not-quite onslaughts.

In 1986-87 – that, amazingly, is 40 seasons ago – Wolves gained 79 points on the back of the first batch of all those Steve Bull goals but finished fourth and improbably messed up home and away against Aldershot in the first staging of the play-offs.

On one more occasion since, they have totalled 76 points (in 1994-95) and again finished fourth prior to play-off heartbreak.

Now, though, the landscape is very different and, judging by last season’s final Championship table, around 57 points could be enough.

Not enough to book a Premier League place, of course, but sufficient to make the play-offs, which this season will take in an extra two clubs.

Derby closed 2025-26 in eighth spot and, despite having 59 points to their name, were well clear of ninth-placed Norwich (56) in amassing that total.

There are two observations worth making at this point. First, that the bar for reaching the play-offs is now significantly lower. Second, the odds of winning the play-offs are going to be correspondingly longer.

Wolves, revived by last night’s victory at Burnley, will still be nursing hopes of leaving nothing to chance and finishing in the top two.

But, when we move into 2027 and the campaign has taken much clearer shape than we currently see unfolding, the new format will become increasingly relevant.

It is difficult to escape the feeling that football’s authorities are further monetising the game’s appeal by expanding the play-offs but the change will make the concept of largely meaningless end-of-season games all but redundant.

Derby v Wolves on the last day of 1992-93 was an absolute ‘dead rubber’. Derby v Wolves on the final afternoon this time could be altogether more relevant.